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DyNaMo Research Meeting

Research Meeting on Dynamic Probabilistic Graphical Models and Applications

Saturday 2 April 2011, by Felipe orihuela

Research Meeting on Dynamic Probabilistic Graphical Models and Applications

Organised by the National Institute of Astrophysics, Optics and Electronics (INAOE)

Friday and Saturday, 3rd-4th June 2011

Hotel Camino Real, Puebla, Mexico

Press notes:

Call for papers:

It is with great pleasure that the National Institute of Astrophyscis, Optics and Electronics (INAOE) cordially invite you to the Research Meeting on Dynamic Probabilistic Graphical Models to be held in Puebla, Mexico. This one and a half day research meeting on Dynamic Probabilistic Graphical Models is a one off event aiming to give diffusion to this technique in the making. It emphasizes the translational aspect, moving from the theoretical models to real applications which directly impact the society. The event aims to present an overview of the state of the art theory and applications of this powerful modelling and analysis techniques. Abstracts should be no longer of 500 words (not counting the title, author and affiliation) and may include a maximum of 5 pictures and tables together. Submission deadline is midnight 6th-May-2011 (Mexico City time). Please submit your abstract in pdf format by mail to one of the contacts below indicating “Abstract submission for DyNaMo research meeting” in the e-mail subject and indicate your preference for presentation modality (oral or poster) in the e-mail body. Abstracts templates are available for Microsoft Word 2007 or later and LaTeX, but final submission should be in the form of .pdf file. Oral presentations will be 30 minutes each. All submission will be reviewed by the organizers and acceptance will be notified by e-mail by Monday, the 16th of May 2011.

Although organized as part of the DyNaMo project (http://www.dynamopro.org/) submission and participation to the meeting is open to anyone willing to participate.

Submission is now closed

Topics:

Topics include but are not limited to:
-  Bayesian networks and models
-  Probabilistic decision making processes
-  Model training algorithms
-  Learning (supervised, unsupervised and reinforced)
-  Bayesian inference

Registration:

Registration is free, but attendance is limited to 60 persons.

Registration is now closed

Venue

Hotel Camino Real, Puebla

7 Poniente No. 105

Centro Histórico

Puebla, Pue. 72000

Tel: +52 (01) 222 229-0906

Fax: +52 (01) 222 229-0908

Web: www.caminoreal.com/puebla

If you are planning to stay at the Hotel Camino Real during the event please contact Ms. Janin Chavez-Martinez (janin.chavez at caminoreal.com.mx), Commercial Area Executive, for special rates to event attendants.

The organizing institution:

The National Institute of Astrophysics, Optics and Electronics (INAOE – http://www.inaoep.mx/) is an excellence research center and is one of the 27 specialized research institutions from the Mexican government National Council of Science and Technology (CONACYT - http://www.conacyt.mx). Established in 1971, continuing the research tradition of the National Astrophysics Laboratory since 1942, INAOE has a strong reputation as a national leading research institution and international projection. Computational sciences is the youngest division (est. 1998) but it has soon become a national research reference with 100% of its researchers belonging to the national system of researchers (SNI).

Contact:

Alma Ríos (alma.rios at ccc.inaoep.mx) or Felipe Orihuela-Espina (f.orihuela-espina at ccc.inaoep.mx)

Scientific Program:

Friday, 3rd June 2011
- 9:00 – 10:00am: Registration
- 10:00 - 10:10am: Welcome message; Professor Dr. Luis Enrique Sucar
- 10:10 - 11:30am: Keynote Lecture

  • Keynote speaker: Dr. Roberto Ley-Borrás (Consultoria en Decisiones) - “Increasing the value of modeling decisions before we start modeling”
  • Session Chair: Professor Dr. Luis Enrique Sucar (INAOE)

- 11:30am – 12:00pm: Coffee break / Press conference
- 12:00 – 14:00pm: Oral Communications – Theory; Training and Learning, Inference and decision making (1x1h + 2x30 minutes each)

  • Session Chair: Dra. Juana Julieta Noguez Monroy (Tecnológico de Monterrey)
  • 12:00-12:30: Dr. Ulises Cortés (Universidad Politécnica de Cataluña) - “RISC Red Iberoamérica de supercomputación”
  • 12:30-13:00: Dr. Felipe Orihuela Espina (INAOE) - “Cogito ergo sum…or do I?”
  • 13:00-13:30: Dr. Eduardo F. Morales (INAOE) - “Bayesian Classifiers for Multidimensional Problems”

- 13:30 - 13:45pm: 1st day Official Photograph
- 13:30 - 16:00pm: Lunch (only provided for invited speakers and members of the DyNaMo consortium)
- 15:45 - 16:45pm: Demo Session (Free visiting)

  • Elvira (Mtro. Pablo Hernández Leal INAOE)
  • Gesture Therapy (Mtro. Roger Luis Velázquez INAOE)
  • iPhone games (Dr. Juan Manuel Ahuactzin ProBayes)
  • ASISTO (Dr. Alberto Reyes Ballesteros IIE)
  • ProModel (Dra. Julieta Juana Julieta Noguez Monroy ITESM)

- 17:00pm – 18:30pm: Oral Communications – Applications, open challenges, future of research and miscellaneous (3x30 minutes each)

  • Session Chair: Dr. Eduardo F. Morales (INAOE)
  • 17:00-17:30: Mtro. Javier Herrera Vega (INAOE) - “Validation Data System based on Bayes Network Approach”
  • 17:30-18:00: Mr. Alejandro Domínguez Almendra (Fundación Arturo Rosenblueth) - “A Bayesian Model for the Vocational Guidance based on Decision Networks”
  • 18:00-18:30: Ing. Sergio Abraham Sanchez Tapia (Fundación Arturo Rosenblueth) - “Zona lectur A-Z”

- 19:00-: Reception cocktail (all attendants welcomed)

Saturday, 4th June 2011
- 10:00 – 11:30pm: Oral Communications – The DyNaMo contributions; Theory (3x30 minutes each)

  • Session Chair: Dr. Alberto Reyes Ballesteros (Instituto de Investigaciones Eléctricas)
  • 10:00-10:30: Mrs. Rosa López Landa (Tecnológico de Monterrey) - “Facilitating the Development of Uncertainty Systems Through PRoModel"
  • 10:30-11:00: Dr. José Enrique Muñoz de Cote Flores Luna (INAOE) - “Manipulation of Bayesian Learning Agents”
  • 11:00-11:30: Dr. Juan Manuel Ahuactzin Larios (ProBayes) - “Probabilistic Graphical Models in Real life Applications”

- 11:30am – 12:00pm: Coffee break and poster presentation
- 12:00 – 13:30pm: Oral Communications – The DyNaMo contributions; Applications (3x30 minutes each)

  • Session Chair: Dr. Pablo Héctor Ibarguengoytia González (IIE)
  • 12:00-12:30: Dr. Alberto Reyes Ballesteros (Instituto de Investigaciones Eléctricas) - “An Intelligent Assistant System for Power Plant Operation and Training based on Probabilistic Graphical Models”
  • 12:30-13:00: Dr. Héctor Avilés (INAOE) - “Gesture Therapy 2.0: Adapting the rehabilitation therapy to the patient progress”
  • 13:00-13:30: Mtra. Alma Ríos Flores (INAOE) - “Unveiling HIV mutational networks associated to pharmacological selective pressure: a temporal Bayesian approach”

- 13:30 – 13:40pm: Closing remarks. Professor Dr. Luis Enrique Sucar
- 13:40 - 14:00pm: 2nd day Official Photograph
- 14:00 - : Lunch (only provided for invited speakers and members of the DyNaMo consortium)

KeyNote Talk: Dr. Roberto Ley Borrás

Increasing the value of modeling decisions before we start modeling

Dr. Roberto Ley-Borrás

Abstract

Modeling decisions and uncertain events (say using influence diagrams) provides a global vision of the decision situation and enables the probabilistic evaluation of outcomes: modeling is a very useful tool for decision making.

However, if modeling is going to provide its full value for the firm or decision-maker, we need to verify that we are working on the right problem or opportunity, that we have identified all the key objectives, that we have generated a rich set of alternatives that can achieve those objectives and that we have quantified the uncertain events that can make a difference when we choose each alternative. These are pre-modeling tasks that can give the decision-maker huge additional value.

This presentation will describe the intersection of Integral Decision Analysis and modeling of decision situations. In the Integral Decision Analysis process each step aims to generate value and clarity for the decision-maker (before, during and after modeling). The process is very efficient and leads to decisions that are clear, valuable and defendable (the quality of the decision can be audited). In short, the Integral Decision Analysis process keeps modeling at the core of the analysis and verifies that the context and elements of the model are the best ones for the decision-maker’s current priorities and circumstances.

Bio

Dr. Roberto Ley-Borrás has a M.Sc. and a Ph.D. degrees in Engineering-Economic Systems from Stanford University (California) with concentration in Decision Analysis, where he conducted research under the supervision of Prof. Ronald A. Howard. He also has a M.Sc. in Industrial Engineering from Lehigh University (Pennsylvania) with concentration in Operations Research. His experience in decision analysis ranges from research to business consulting, and includes a long academic trajectory as university professor and graduate thesis advisor. He has also served in a number of positions in industry and the public sector.

Dr. Ley-Borrás has made a number of academic contributions in the fields of decision analysis, probabilistic forecasting and modeling of uncertainty. He has published in national and international peer-review journals. He is the author of the books Análisis de Decisiones Integral (Integral Decision Analysis) and Análisis de Incertidumbre y Riesgo para la Toma de Decisiones (Uncertainty and Risk Analysis for Decision Making, both being widely used by universities and consulting firms in Latin America and Spain. Currently he is Director of Consultoría en Decisiones (decidir.org), where he provides consulting services and training in decision-making to firms and institutions.

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  FONCICYT Project No:95185
  Start of the works:August 18th 2009
  End of the works: Jun 30th 2011

  This project is financed by the
  European Union and the National
  Council on Science and Technology
  (CONACYT) Mexico.

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